Some economists believe that a U.S. recession could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC). They think that the next Bitcoin bull run will start in 2023.
Related: THE 2022 CRYPTO MARKET OVERVIEW: Crypto market trends and price predictions
Few assets have ever had a bull run like the one that Bitcoin experienced at the end of 2021. However, throughout the majority of 2022, this Bitcoin bull run, and many other cryptocurrencies came to an abrupt end.
Since Bitcoin is the oldest and most valuable cryptocurrency, it can be considered a market leader — at least, it has recently, as many other cryptocurrencies also fell victim to the protracted “crypto winter” of 2022.
Around $30,000 was the starting price of Bitcoin (BTC) in 2021, but by mid-April, that price had more than doubled to the north of $60,000. It subsequently dropped once more before rising once again to about $68,000 in November 2021, indicating two impressive bull runs inside a calendar year.
All things considered, 2022 has been a very different story, with BTC prices falling below $20,000 and those of other cryptocurrencies including Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) also experiencing steep value declines.
The Bitcoin community is divided on whether the price of the currency will rise or fall in the upcoming year. Most analysts and technical indicators predict it could bottom shortly between $12,000 and $16,000.
On the other hand, influencers, BTC maximalists, and a variety of other fervent “shills” claim that its price may increase to as much as $80,000.
Both sides are supported by evidence. They might be taking into account different temporal horizons, which is one issue. In the upcoming months, BTC will probably experience a large decrease, although it may potentially increase from mid-to-late 2023. The key question for cryptocurrency traders right now is whether they should prepare for a second crypto bull run in 2023.
Past Crypto Trends: Can They Help Predict Future Trends?
Though predicting the future of Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, in general, is tough, keeping an eye on BTC’s and possibly other cryptocurrencies’ recent performance can help decide whether or not another bull run is in store for them.
Investors in bitcoin probably recall the 2017 bull run, when the cryptocurrency rose to a value of about $20,000. The buzz around several initial coin offerings (ICOs), such as Brave, Kik, and Filecoin, as well as people hoping to profit from growing prices shortly, were major contributors to that rise.
Many experts did not find this shocking because they frequently state that the cryptocurrency markets will be volatile as they compete for reputation.
The launch of Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency in 2019 helped fuel a new Bitcoin upswing, with prices reaching a high of about $11,000. Bitcoin’s price, along with those of several other cryptocurrencies, dropped to $6,000 and $7,500 in the second half of 2019 as a result of the withdrawal of some Libra project backers.
As money found its way into unorthodox markets like cryptocurrencies due to stimulus programs designed to support businesses after the Covid-19 pandemic, Bitcoin rose to a new high in 2020.
Arguments in favor of a 2023 BTC price increase
Bitcoin bull runs typically follow the four-year market cycle, which includes accumulation (buying), an upswing, distribution (selling), and a downturn. While the accumulation phase of this process should typically begin around 2023, some believe it may not happen until 2024.
However, there is evidence to suggest that valuations will likely increase in the middle of 2023. Kevin Svenson predicts that a bull market could begin in April, following the conclusion of the 80-week bear market.
#Bitcoin Average Bear Market Length pic.twitter.com/3in9MsLaK2— Kevin Svenson (@KevinSvenson_) October 19, 2022
These price rises over time are also encouraged by Bitcoin’s deflationary characteristics, which are manifested in its “halving” events. (The compensation for miners is reduced in half as a result of halvings. The following one is planned for April 2024.) Despite market volatility, the deflationary nature of Bitcoin leads to price growth for long-term investors.
But watch out for hype. Avarice sells, as both markets and influencers are well aware. Be skeptical about predictions that Ether will increase by 10 times in 2023. In addition, despite such promises, Bitcoin is extremely unlikely to reach $100,000 or even get close to it.
Optimistic projections show BTC falling below $3000
According to other experts, a surge won’t occur until 2023 or even thereafter.
It might not be profitable for crypto traders to run the ecosystem if BTC falls to $12,000 or less. As a result, transactions wouldn’t be executed, which might substantially affect the industry.
A bullish attitude despite the changing times
Regarding BTC price cycles, there are still several issues that need to be resolved. These four-year cycles may no longer be relevant, according to some, for a variety of reasons. One is that, unlike prior cycles, most BTC is not the only game in town.
Along with decentralized finance (DeFi), gameFi, nonfungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and web3 businesses, it competes with top cryptocurrencies that are generally superior. Many believe that BTC will increase because people will be “more interested in DeFi.” This is false.
On October 18, private wallets received more than 38,000 BTC worth $750 million from cryptocurrency exchanges. Moves made outside of exchanges are frequently seen as optimistic indicators. Due to interest from institutions and pension plans, Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki is optimistic about bitcoin (BTC).
Why buy gold, silver, Bitcoin? Bank of England pivot means buy more GSBC. When pensions nearly collapsed it exposed Central Banks cannot fix…INFLATION. Pension have always invested in G& S. Pension funds now investing in Bitcoin. They know Fake $, stocks & bonds are toast.— therealkiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) October 7, 2022
The year 2023: What will happen?
After such a sharp decline in value, it’s simple to look at most of 2022 and leave feeling convinced never to invest in the cryptocurrency market again. However, it’s crucial to keep in mind that this year has witnessed a remarkably rare convergence of both global events and economic obstacles that have contributed to an overall slump.
A fractal showing the price movement of bitcoin from late 2018 to early 2019. The abrupt decline from the support area of 40–50% and how the bottom was produced are two of the many apparent similarities.
For cryptocurrencies, 2022 has been a busy year, but not in the way that most investors would have preferred. The value of the crypto market has decreased significantly, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a bull run in the near future, especially when you take into account the rise and fall of crypto values generally during the last few years.
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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.